Narrative Ops #012
#012

A NATO study by Repsense times the Kremlin's weak spot, Matryoshka gets assignments in Paris and Berlin, and the EU's Ceuta hotline

Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 9 min read

Our new study for NATO StratCom COE mapped how Russia's domestic propaganda machine handles a crisis – and found it takes on average 18 hours to agree an official line. Abroad, meanwhile, three likely French presidential candidates reported Russian operations against them, leaked files showed how a Kremlin influence contractor plans its work ahead of Germany's September elections, and the EU opened a joint channel with Meta and TikTok to flag disinformation after Ceuta. Welcome to issue 12 of Narrative Ops.

Repsense special
Repsense research · published by NATO StratCom COE

Russia's propaganda machine has a weak spot: the first 18 hours

Source: NATO StratCom COE

On August 10 the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence published “Crisis, Control, Crusade: Russia's Propaganda Architecture”, a 194-page study carried out by Repsense together with political science researchers. The study set out to answer not what the propaganda says but how the whole architecture works. Our analysts mapped about 3.13 million media items over 15 months – state websites, television and Telegram channels – and found the system processes every crisis in the same order: competing versions first, one locked-in narrative within roughly a day, then absorption into the larger story of Russia versus the West.

3.13m
Media items analysed
15
Months covered
18 hrs
To a coordinated Kremlin line

In the first hours after an unexpected crisis, official channels stall and competing versions of events fight for space on Telegram; a unified Kremlin narrative forms only later. The clearest case was Ukraine's 2024 Kursk incursion: state media said nothing for seven hours, and a coordinated position took 18 – throughout that window, the story was told by Telegram channels and military bloggers.

“While the Kremlin takes on average 18 hours to agree an official position, the information space is left without an owner.”

Mykolas Katkus, Repsense CEO

A few other findings:

Different platforms play different roles. State websites provide institutional authority, television supplies emotional framing, Telegram delivers speed and experimentation.

War losses are acknowledged but never added up. In Tuva and Buryatia, each death is reported locally through heroism and family pride – a cumulative figure appears nowhere.

Historical memory works as infrastructure. Victory Day and the mythology of 1945 frame the current war as a continuation of an existential struggle.

The primary audience is domestic. Attempts to carry these narratives abroad produced limited results – in Western headlines they mostly appeared alongside rebuttals.

Read the full report or our summary.

Breaking
RUSSIAGERMANY

Fake BBC clips target every German party but the AfD – and leaked files show what comes next

Photo: Kay Nietfeld (picture alliance via Getty Images), via Euractiv

German authorities have put a name on the Russian disinformation campaign running before September's state elections in Berlin, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: Matryoshka, the same network Viginum flagged in France. Four security sources told Reuters the operation is centrally coordinated from Russia through a web of companies. Its output is mostly English-language videos carrying BBC and ARD logos, accusing local politicians of offences from embezzlement to sexual harassment. The targets span every major party except two: the far-right AfD, polling close to an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, and the left-wing BSW. Germany's interior ministry confirmed it is monitoring the campaign but is not taking active countermeasures, saying the content is not achieving significant reach.

Internal documents from the Social Design Agency (SDA) – a Moscow IT firm that works as a Kremlin influence contractor, financed by the Russian state with support and strategic guidance from GRU Unit 29155 – show how the wider apparatus plans its work. The papers, obtained by Euractiv and assessed as authentic by authorities in Berlin, list objectives that include “deepening internal rifts within ruling elites” in NATO countries. Among the projects German authorities have identified: a Wikipedia clone whose pages already outrank the original in some search results, and a think tank planned for 2026 whose experts would appear in Western media, its English-language website already live. One document sets a French target too: monitoring the 100 most prominent opposition voices and republishing 30–40 of their posts daily.

Major story Reuters · Euractiv
Elections
RUSSIAFRANCE

Three French candidates hit by Russian fakes in ten days

Photo: Stephanie Lecocq (Reuters), via Le Monde
A fabricated post about Édouard Philippe's health. Source: X

France's 2027 presidential campaign has not formally started, but within ten days three likely candidates announced Russian-linked disinformation operations against them. Édouard Philippe came first, at the end of July: false claims about his health, spread by Storm-1516, a network French authorities link to Russian military intelligence. In early August the same network went after Raphaël Glucksmann: it built a fake copy of the French news site Blast and faked a voice recording of the veteran journalist Edwy Plenel, using both to spread an invented story that Glucksmann's partner, television journalist Léa Salamé, was bribing reporters to promote him. Paris prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation, AFP reported.

Gabriel Attal's turn came a day later: Viginum, France's anti-interference agency, attributed posts impersonating French media outlets – falsely claiming the former prime minister has Parkinson's disease – to the pro-Russian Matryoshka network with high confidence. The reach was a few thousand views, according to a security source. On Friday government services notified Attal of a second operation, which his lawyers say was built to suggest he had orchestrated the disinformation against himself; that evening he filed a legal complaint in Paris.

“If we do nothing to protect ourselves, the election could be rigged.”

Gabriel Attal, on RTL radio

The response has turned into its own debate: Le Monde notes the SGDSN – the French government's defence and national security secretariat, which oversees Viginum – usually advises victims not to communicate publicly, since leaked Russian documents show operators count every article about a fabrication – including debunks – as a win. Cyber-threat researcher Rayna Stamboliyska told Mediapart the shift is that this time the politicians, not Viginum, went public. The first round is on April 18, 2027.

Major story AFP · Le Monde · Mediapart
Platforms
DISINFORMATIONEUSPAIN

Brussels drafts Meta and TikTok before the next Ceuta rush

Source: Maldita.es

“Platforms must act decisively in keeping the integrity of the digital space,” EU tech commissioner Henna Virkkunen said after the Ceuta surge. After meetings on Friday and Monday, the Commission, Meta and TikTok agreed to set up a joint channel for the Ceuta crisis, Politico reports, citing three people with knowledge of the talks. Through it, platforms, fact-checkers and the Commission flag suspect content so it can be reviewed quickly and, if needed, taken down.

The channel is a response to the migrant crisis in Ceuta at the end of July, and the picture of the disinformation behind it has sharpened since. On August 6 a Commission spokesperson said channels linked to foreign information manipulation – Russian ones in particular – began amplifying the situation on July 30, having shown no such activity before that date; Europol and the EEAS are examining possible Russian involvement. Counter-disinformation group 411 examined some 4.5 million posts and found accounts linked to the Russian military reached more than 500,000 people with far-right framings of the crossing, reproduced in seven languages – over 720,000 views in six hours on August 1. One origin was Rybar, a Telegram channel tied to Russian intelligence, amplified by a repeater network that included Pravda-linked accounts. Fact-checker Maldita.es traced disinformation about reception – claims that Spain grants asylum to everyone who enters – through at least ten Facebook groups that also organise new crossings, with posts calling on members to go in on August 15.

Thierry Breton, the former EU commissioner behind the Digital Services Act, is calling for a formal DSA inquiry with researcher access to platform data. “Without understanding the algorithmic mechanism, every future Ceuta will produce another deadlock,” he told La Stampa. So far, no member state has triggered the DSA's crisis mechanism.

Major story Politico · The Guardian · Euractiv
Dispatch
PLATFORMSJAPAN

Japan gets its news from X – a commentary calls that a security problem

Over 65 million Japanese use X – more than half the population, a global anomaly – making it the country's main news source, argues ICU professor Stephen Nagy in The Japan Times. His examples: framed photos turning a small Tokyo protest into a viral “uprising”, China-linked accounts recasting defence spending as revived militarism, and fabricated claims about Muslim residents.

The Japan Times
FACT-CHECKLATVIA

A fake ‘ban’ on Raimonds Pauls songs travels from the Saeima to TASS

Latvian MP Edmunds Zivtiņš claimed in the Saeima that eight Raimonds Pauls songs had been outlawed; his party clipped the speech, politicians shared it, and TASS reported a “ban” citing Delfi, which had written no such thing. No ban exists – the amendments in question have not been adopted, fact-checkers at Re:Check found.

Re:Check / LSM
UKRAINENORTH KOREA

Kyiv warns North Korea may reuse Russia's war lessons at home

Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, warned on August 10 that North Korea may apply the battlefield experience gained in Russia's war to a new phase of aggression on the Korean Peninsula – and assessed that Russia will copy North Korea's internet-restriction model within two years.

Mezha / Bukvy
RUSSIAUKRAINE

Russian channels push an AI-made ‘soldier’ and phantom British prisoners

Detector Media's weekly review logged 15 Russian disinformation cases for July 29 – August 4, including an AI-generated “Ukrainian soldier” denying a strike on Kremenchuk – first posted to an anonymous TikTok account, then amplified by Russian Telegram channels – and a fake claim that Britain would send released prisoners to Ukraine's army, grown from a satirical post.

Detector Media
The thread

Two weeks ago we covered the disinformation wave turning Poles against Ukrainians.

Update: on August 9, demonstrations under the slogan “Don't Be Indifferent” were held in 22 Polish cities against the rise in attacks, organised by the Committee for the Defence of Democracy – two days after a petition with more than 11,000 signatures reached the prime minister's office. Polish police recorded 180 hate-crime reports filed by Ukrainians in the first half of 2026, up over 30 percent year on year.

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