Case Study
Armenia: Diaspora Mobilization and Domestic Narratives in Pre-Election Environment
Problem
Armenia’s information ecosystem ahead of the elections has become increasingly dominated by coordinated, emotionally driven narratives that systematically disadvantage the incumbent. Rather than reflecting voter priorities, the landscape is shaped by high-intensity identity and security frames amplified across platforms and reinforced through diaspora networks. The rapid growth of short-form video, combined with cross-platform narrative spillover and early signs of organised mobilisation, has created a fast-moving, self-reinforcing environment where influence operations can scale quickly - particularly in the critical weeks leading up to the vote.
Our Research
Repsense conducted a comprehensive, multi-layered analysis of Armenia’s pre-election information environment, covering the period from November 2025 to 12 March 2026. The study is based on a core dataset of 477,000+ media items collected across web portals, Facebook, Instagram, Telegram, TikTok, X, YouTube, and short-form video platforms.
To capture the full dynamics of narrative formation and spread, the analysis integrates multiple data layers: Russian-language diaspora Telegram (13,000+ messages) to track external influence and mobilisation; Facebook content(11,000+ posts) to assess domestic and diaspora-facing narratives; deep short-form video analysis (988 videos) using Repsense’s Havel AI to classify narrative themes, emotional tone, and geopolitical framing; and TV and podcast transcripts (29 episodes), enabling traceable analysis of election-related messaging across broadcast media.
Findings
Repsense analysis shows that Armenia’s pre-election information environment has become structurally anti-incumbent across all platforms. The ongoing Iran conflict has intensified fear-based geopolitical narratives, further amplifying anti-government sentiment - most visibly in short-form video, where 85.8% of content targeting Pashinyan is negative. This is particularly critical given the 45-day pre-election amplification window (opening in late April), during which algorithmic distribution is expected to accelerate sharply.
Opposition narratives dominate across Telegram, Facebook, video, and broadcast media, while pro-government presence remains limited - especially in short-form video, a key channel for younger voters and late-stage influence.
Narrative attacks are emotionally concentrated rather than issue-aligned: 59% of anti-government video content focuses on Artsakh and territorial betrayal, with security failure at 28.8%, while economic criticism accounts for only 3.4% - despite being a top voter concern. This indicates a strategy focused on mobilisation through high-emotion identity frames rather than persuasion.
Overall, with established narrative infrastructure already in place - and evidence from Moldova showing rapid late-stage scaling of similar content - the environment is primed for accelerated, algorithm-driven influence operations.
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Dominyka Bernotaitė,
Head of Sales